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Correlation

NewsAlert: there were 14% fewer murders in Chicago compared to the first six months of last year – back when owning handguns was illegal. It was the largest drop in Chicago’s murder rate since the handgun ban went into effect in 1982.

9 Responses to “Correlation”

  1. John Smith. Says:

    It cannot be.. And no wildwest gun battles…

  2. Ted N(not the Nuge) Says:

    Huh. Imagine that…

  3. Weer'd Beard Says:

    Well its not like that’s happened ANYWHERE else…except everywhere. 🙂

  4. Stranger Says:

    Actually, Chicago keeps two sets of crime numbers. One is for the public, one is not. By actual body count, it appears Chicago will end 2011 with around 500 homicides.

    That will be down by about 90 over 2010 – or 15%. With the caution that not all Chicago murders show up here; those “fortunate” enough to live in the Chicago area can get a better handle on the situation here, or get a running total in each Thursdays print edition:

    http://homicides.redeyechicago.com/

    What the “official” total will be is another story. It will be whatever suits the Chicago machine’s purpose at the time.

    Stranger

  5. Standard Mischief Says:

    @Stranger
    I’m having a hard time believing that, and even if they were hiding bodies from prior years, they would be pulling them all out nowadays to cook the books.

    Although where there isn’t a room temperature body involved, I’m pretty sure it’s SOP nationwide to encourage people not to file a report, or file for something far less severe.

    Ideally, they would like citizens to call them promptly over the most trivial of purposes so they can dispatch an officer (which makes the case for more needed manpower) and then not report that someone has obviously tried to B&E by hammering a screwdriver into a keyhole (they claimed this was only “vandalism”) to make the crime rate look better than it is.

  6. mikee Says:

    Maybe the local ERs got a better staff of surgical interns this past year. Maybe a new hospital trauma room was opened. Maybe the people doing the shooting are missing more, or the people being shot at are dodging better.

    Deaths from shootings mean little in the context of violent criminal firearm use, except to those more or less directly involved.

    If you want to know what is going on in the violent criminal firearm usage for a city, you need to list all such uses, not just the deadly ones. Preferably they should be broken down by firearm type, caliber, maker, model, source and so on, as well as criminal actor history, and other data.

  7. Lumpy Says:

    Chicago’s got a tradition of creative book-keeping.
    http://news.medill.northwestern.edu/chicago/news.aspx?id=172599

    307 from another source:

    http://crimeinchicago.blogspot.com/

  8. Pol Mordreth Says:

    @ mikee:
    No, we don’t. All we really need is a simple number to point to to rebut the presumption that allowing non-criminals to carry does not result in an increase in deaths.

  9. Pol Mordreth Says:

    Wow, I really said that wrong. Change “does not result” to ‘results’, and it makes more sense.