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Horse race

Judging from the radio news, PA is in play for Republicans and so is Ohio. I’m not sure those two states have a wide enough spread to account for margin of fraud. So, it looks like the election will come down to Ohio and maybe PA.

15 Responses to “Horse race”

  1. Dave Says:

    And for months people were telling me I was an idiot when I said PA was going to be in play this year and it would be a Romney win in PA. After all, what the hell do I know about the people of PA. I’ve only lived, worked, and campaigned here for 40 years. Pa is so much more than just Philly, and Romney has double digit leads in all of the middle T. The support for Romney looks just like the 2008 BHO support.

  2. rickn8or Says:

    Which state has the most out-of-work coal miners?

  3. comatus Says:

    According to Zola, that would be the Departement du Nord.

  4. Standard Mischief Says:

    Expect a total hissy-fit over the blackbox voting machines that require power and don’t have a paper trail should 0bama lose.

    People who were just peachy with them in 2008 and 2004 will of course scream the loudest.

    I have no idea what NYC is going to do. Maybe they could run to Kinkos/FedEx Office, print up some paper ballots, build some strongboxes, and get some purple thumb dye or something.

  5. breda Says:

    Don’t worry, Unc. I’ll shoulder the burden of having to forgo my conscience and do the right thing, since you can’t seem to man up and vote.

  6. ern Says:

    I’ve thought PA would be in play now for quite awhile. I wouldn’t want to put money down on a Romney win, but I wouldn’t laugh at people who did just that.

  7. Sebastian The Blogless Says:

    Wishful thinking. And no, AM radio isn’t a useful resource for considering these sorts of things.

    If you look at, you know, respected polls about these sorts of things…POTUS is probably going to get around 330-350 electoral college tallies.

    The money quote:

    “Mr. Obama’s lead in the Electoral College is modest, but also quite consistent across the different methods. The states in which every site has Mr. Obama leading make up 271 electoral votes — one more than the president needs to clinch victory. The states in which everyone has Mr. Romney ahead represent 206 electoral votes. That leaves five states, and 61 electoral votes, unaccounted for — but Mr. Obama would not need them if he prevails in the states where he is leading in the polls.”

    Dream on bud. This one’s done, short of that video of the Obummer getting a hummer from a billy goat coming to light.

  8. breda Says:

    Sebastian the Blogless suggests we use respected sources and then links to the NYTimes.

    All righty then.

  9. alan Says:

    LOL!!! “respected polls” That’s a good one.

    If the polls are so great why are they always wrong?

  10. Hippies Suck Says:

    “Margin of Fraud”, aka MOF. You have coined a valuable phrase.

    Is the MOF 7%? Or less?

    This is how they roll in Ohio:

    Some hippie idiot will say it was a minor mistake. But it is the game plan.

  11. mike w. Says:

    I have to agree with Breda and Alan. The NYT is not a “respected source” for anything. Couple that with the fact that a huge majority of these polls are done with a substantial D+ sampling and I am heavily skeptical of them.

    Republican turnout will be higher than 08′, and it’s highly unlikely that Democratic turnout will end up at or near 08′ levels.

  12. Sebastian The Blogless Says:

    If Breda the petulant would bother looking at what was actually referenced, she’d have noted it wasn’t the NYTimes, but a series of non partisan polling organizations who do this for a living.

    You might not like what he’s telling you…but Nate Silver has a knack for getting this shit right.

    But you go Breda…don’t let those annoying facts get in your way. I’m sure it’ll alllllll work out for you Tuesday night princess.

  13. Sebastian The Blogless Says:

    I see Mike had the same case of stupid.

  14. Sebastian The Blogless Says:

    (I’m sure Ipsos and Rasumussen and the University of Cincy and all the other polling organizations–to wit…NOT the NY Times, which isn’t a polling organization and not what Nate Silver was referencing–are just in on the scam, right? Not much gets in the bubble. Enjoy your Tuesday evening, folks.)

  15. Dave Says:

    Now, today we have the most accurate PA pollster calling the PA race a Romney win. Tuesday night is going to be interesting for sure and I think PA is going to the shocker for the nation.