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Stop, New Hampshire Time

Some mediocre political commentary. First, the Dems:

Obama: Represents change. Yet, no one can tell me what he’s going to change. I mean, looking at the issues, it seems to be the same old pie in the sky that folks with Ds after their names have been pushing for years. Minimal specifics.

Hillary: It’s probably tough being a woman running for president. And it just got tougher since the talking heads report that you broke down on TeeVee. And there’s no crying in politics. Yes, I know you didn’t really but that’s how it’s spun. No one wants the keeper of The Button to appear all emotional.

Edwards: Are you ever going to take the hint that we Americans just aren’t into you? Stop calling us. It’s over.

Richardson: My favorite Dem but he’s done.

Republicans:

Romney: I just want this guy to lose. Can’t stand him. He looks dirty and I am generally opposed to just about every political view he has. He’ll say anything to get elected.

McCain: The Maverick! And by maverick, I mean self-serving prick. Big government but ballsy.

Giuliani: Well, the thing about Iowa is that it proved that you’re just not gonna pull off the red states. Good. Like Romney, you’re a big government authoritarian nanny.

/20~ p@\/1: Actually beat Giuliani in Iowa. The right wing establishment can’t stand him as evidenced by the fact he wasn’t even invited to the Foxnews debate, even though folks he beat in Iowa were invited. I think, ultimately, the right wing establishment fears his message. But if /20~ p@\/1 can’t win in New Hampshire (Live free or die) he really can’t win anywhere. I don’t think America is ready for his message and I doubt they ever will be.

Huckabee: The worst of the left and right rolled into one. Big government and backed by the evangelical crowd. Not a good combo. Will likely lose steam in NH because of that.

Thompson: My personal choice. He has consistently laid out detailed policy positions. Over at factcheck.org, he’s the candidate who never gets fact-checked. But his positions don’t fit neatly into soundbytes. And the press seems to mostly ignore him for a couple of reasons (one of which is that he is conservative). If he doesn’t get it together by South Carolina, he’s probably done.

So, with that, my predictions this time for New Hampshire:

Dems:

1 Obama
2 Edwards
3 Hillary
4 Richardson

Republican

1 McCain
2 Romney
3 Thompson
4 Huckabee
5 /20~ p@\/1
6 Giuliani

Update: BTW, I think Obama’s success is going to be tough for Republicans if it continues. Their machine is set in motion to deal with Hillary. Not him.

21 Responses to “Stop, New Hampshire Time”

  1. HardCorps Says:

    I think my man Ron Paul will take at least 20% and will come in third after McCain, Romney and above guiliani.

    It would be doable for Paul to beat Obama especially on the economic issues. Paul’s message of ending the war and stopping the money presses is resonating louder and louder. Paul is the safe bet compared to Obama in the eyes of the Americans.

    Obama never has been in the military, has little governmental experience and is disliked by the dem establishment. He’ll need republicans to vote for him to win and there’s probably no way that’s going to happen.

  2. Sean Braisted Says:

    Its not simply a policy change with Obama, though certainly there would be some policy changes over the current administration; but rather an emphasis on elevating the rhetoric and tone of Washington politics. Can he succeed all by his lonesome? Maybe not, but it certainly is worth trying.

    He’s already changed the dynamics of Democratic politics by bringing in independent and young voters in record numbers. He has so far that you can win by giving a broad message that appeals to a large swath of people, rather than targeted mini campaigns designed to get 50+1, which has apparently been the Clinton, and to an extent, Edwards campaigns.

  3. Sean Braisted Says:

    “He has [shown] so far”

  4. SayUncle Says:

    Heís already changed the dynamics of Democratic politics by bringing in independent and young voters in record numbers.

    So did Dean.

  5. Brian Says:

    http://freenj.blogspot.com/2008/01/vision-for-democratic-change-of-hope.html

    This guy does a pretty good job of lampooning the democrats cries for change, because change is always a good thing.

  6. Rustmeister Says:

    Thompson (my guy) probably won’t win. He’s too plain spoken and refuses to jump through the hoops laid out for him by the media.

    I’d wager, however, that if he doesn’t win, he’d make an excellent candidate for VP attack dog.

    I’m feeling a bit like Harry Potter under the sorting hat: “Not Romney! Not Romney!”

  7. M Says:

    Thompson could not get on tv if he streaked naked through Time Square. A pitty, by far the best choice.

  8. # 9 Says:

    Thompson is doing something rarely seen. He is discussing real issues. This country sure could use Fred Thompson in the White House. But he has to survive until Super Tuesday.

    I nominate Hillary for an Oscar. I was touched by her performance yesterday. It seemed real. It wasn’t.

    I am loving watching Edwards get beat up at Progressiveville. Hillary Clinton is an human as one of the Honda robots. They could cry too if they had tear ducts.

  9. # 9 Says:

    After watching the Dem debate Saturday I wondered about change. America hasn’t been attacked since 9/11. I don’t want that to change.

  10. Sean Braisted Says:

    Uncle,

    Dean did not bring in Independents…that is what Obama has been able to do. Dean excited Young people, sure, but it was simply because he was the only one that was against the war in Iraq. Obama’s candidacy is not a single issue one, and that is where its strength comes from.

    In addition, whereas Dean was running against a host of fairly unknown characters, Barack Obama was running against the Democrat with the highest name recognition in the country, as well as a former VP nominee who was actually popular with his party’s base (unlike Joe Lieberman).

  11. Manish Says:

    I guess I have a little different take on Thompson..during the Republican debate, the question was asked about how do you differ from Obama. I thought that Huckabee’s answer was very classy, on the other hand Thompson gave the same tired he’s a liberal line that probably works fine in Tennessee but isn’t going to score points nationally.

    America hasnít been attacked since 9/11. I donít want that to change.

    Well, unless you consider the almost 4000 soldiers who’ve lost their lives and close to 20,000 injured (i.e. more than 9/11)

  12. Phelps Says:

    ronpaul2008.com is resented by the party because it is pretty plain that the vast majority of his support will not be voting Republican come November. I was reading a story about Clinton’s run in with ronpaul2008.com truthers yesterday (Bravo Bubba, BTW) and about nine out of ten rp2008 commenters wrote something like, “I’ve never voted Republican before, but…”

    They aren’t Republicans. They won’t be voting Republican. Wasting time on them is, well, wasting time. The only silver lining is that if he is nutty enough to run as an independent, then he can have the Perot/Nadar spoiler effect and throw the election to the Republicans.

  13. Alcibiades McZombie Says:

    Maybe someone should convince Ru Paul to run. S/he may cause some hilarious ballot confusion issues.

  14. Cactus Jack Says:

    “I nominate Hillary for an Oscar. I was touched by her performance yesterday. It seemed real. It wasnít.”

    I would’nt nominate the Hildebeest for park pooper-scooper.

    She probably thought that the crying woman image would break hearts and make people sympathetic to her and then support her. It didnt impress me. If anything I detest her even more, if that’s possible, for attempting that bullshit. And bullshit is all it was.

    “Clinton Says Dealing With Campaign Strain `Not Easy'”
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20080108/pl_bloomberg/alk_yysgkjci_1
    Hell, if she gets stressed out just CAMPAIGNING for POTUS how would she hold up under the stress of that job, the toughest in the USA? I sure hope we never have to find out.

  15. chris Says:

    I think the tickets will be Obama-Richardson and McCain-Thompson.

    I hope it’s Obama, because he will be on the defensive regarding his on guns.

    I also like seeing Hillary de-fanged.

  16. straightarrow Says:

    yes Manish, I consider them. My family has been highly represented there, some wounds but no deaths for us. We are ever thankful for that. Those 24000 you mentioned are exactly the reason America has not been attacked anywhere in the world for the longest period of time in thirty-five years.

    The 4000 you mentioned have died over a period of more than six years, compared with 3000 Ameicans who died in an hour and a quarter in 2001.

    Your dismissal of the importance of the protection our military personnel have sacrificed so much for to keep the vast majority of us safer than we have been in four decades speaks ill of your character.

  17. JohnX Says:

    how bout that fred. racking up a whopping 1% in new hampshire right now. he’s going to have to prove that he’s actually alive and not just like one of those cartoon characters where somebody is propping him up and mimicking him before anybody is going to vote for him. and if he could get his head out of the neocons’ ass it would probably help.

  18. straightarrow Says:

    Fred probably won’t do well, simply because he gives intelligent answers to questions instead of bumper sticker slogans and most Americans are incapable of processing those answers.

    We are so proud of ourselves now, but I am damned if I know why. I grew up around a couple of generations of men most of whom had not finished the eighth grade, yet they were more educated and far more intelligent than the normal run of Americans we get today. And though I didn’t agree with a lot of their politics it was obvious that intelligent analysis went into their positions and they did their own damn thinking. Not something we see much of today.

    Off topic, but related slightly is my absolute disgust with college graduates who are so ignorant and shallow as to be almost be a lower order of lifeform. That, of course, does not apply to all college graduates, but it does to far too many. Unfortunately, they still think they are entitled to respect, and so do a great many others. It is enough to make a grown man cry just trying to read some of writings of these slugs.

    We have lowered the bar too far when our most educated are less educated than prior generations uneducated.

    That is one reason Fred will not do well. A listener must think, when he speaks. And most refuse to do so. or can’t.

  19. straightarrow Says:

    delete one “be” above and here is the apostrophe I left out, ‘

  20. Rabbit Says:

    eef…1% and behind unmentionable.

    I know he didn’t concentrate much effort there, but geez, come ON, folks…

    Rabbit.

  21. Phelps Says:

    Fred did poorly in NH because the citizens of that state demand personal fellatio ala Tania Derveaux in return for 20 or so delegates, and Fred can’t waste effort and money on that right now.