Recent Poll Shows Bush Ahead in NC
A USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll of voters in North Carolina shows Bush leading Kerry 51-44 among registered voters, and 56-41 among likely voters. Margin of error is about 5%.
I find it mildly interesting, since it’s my (current) home state. If I’m not mistaken, North Carolina has voted for the Republican Presidential candidate ever since 1968, except for 1976. It’s also been represented in the Senate by Jesse Helms and Elizabeth Dole….and John Edwards. So you never know.
I wonder if anybody’s ever gone back and checked how well these polls predicted reality?
July 14th, 2004 at 11:29 am
According to polls, Dewey defeated Truman. That’s about all you need to know. 🙂
Seriously, it’s way too early to tell. However, I’d be surprised if Kerry/Edwards carry more than one state in the South (not counting Florida).
July 14th, 2004 at 12:49 pm
Yep, pretty much what I was thinking. Except that last part; you really think they’re only going to carry a max of 2 states in the South?
July 15th, 2004 at 3:21 pm
Thib:
Except that last part; you really think they’re only going to carry a max of 2 states in the South?
Yeah, I really think that, although I said I’d be surprised if they carried more, not that it’s impossible. Politics in the South is dominated by religious conservatives, and Democrats just don’t play well with that constituency. That’s why I exempt Florida — it has enough transplants from elsewhere. No way they win Alabama or Mississippi. They might manage to take Tennessee or North Carolina or maybe Arkansas.
Fortunately (for me), if they don’t lose any of the states they won in 2000 and add Florida, that will be enough.
July 15th, 2004 at 3:46 pm
What’s that? I thought the Democrats actually won Florida in 2000.
😀
July 15th, 2004 at 10:27 pm
Thib:
Sorry, but I’ve never been among the “Bush stole the election” folks. 🙂 By any honest measure, the 2000 election was a statistical tie. And yet another in a long list of compelling reasons why we should have runoff elections. I’ve got a blog post brewing about that.