On Bhutto
Yesterday, in Pakistan, a person your average American had probably never heard of was assassinated. Now, the talking heads and pundits are convincing Americans that the murder of this person they’d likely never heard of could be a catalyst to an even bigger war. What kind of war? No one really says. Civil war in Pakistan? Maybe. All out war in the region? Dunno. I’m not trying to minimize the impact of the event at all. The world just got more scary and your average American probably doesn’t really understand why.
December 28th, 2007 at 9:42 am
This morning, watching the news, I thought of Arch Duke Franz Ferdinand. What with India and Pakistan’s dispute over the Kashmir, and all the other “potential energy” built up around there, I really hope this doesn’t escalate.
December 28th, 2007 at 11:17 am
On the one hand, Bhutto was the (more or less) democratic, (more or less) loyal opposition to a fairly brutal military dictator who’s not exactly popular in his own country. Losing such a leader is not likely to much strengthen the dictator (a U.S. ally, keep in mind) but may well destabilize the country.
On another hand, Bhutto was on that same dictator’s side against violent religious extremism that in and of itself destabilizes their country and the whole region. Losing a leader of the opposition against that movement is not likely to strengthen anything any sane person wants strengthened, either.
On a third hand, there’s the nukes. Pakistan’s (who’s gonna get to control them), India’s (who’re worried about Pakistan’s), and China’s (the 800-pound gorilla of the region, with land borders on India and Pakistan both). China likes to play “sleeping dragon” a lot, but behind that facade, I don’t imagine they want a nuclear-armed civil war in any of their neighbors any more than we would.
Then there’s Afghanistan, no longer circling the bowl, more like spinning madly half a mile down the sewer line. The difference between Afghanistan and Pakistan gets pretty blurry in some of the border regions, such that chaos in either country ends up feeding and feeding on chaos in the other. Sort of like the Kashmir region on the Pakistan-India border, of which the Indians are (of course) painfully aware. Don’t get involved in a land war in Asia? I’m betting quite a few Asians wish they had the chance to take that advice.
December 28th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
Its not that your average American does not understand why. Its that your average American could care less whilst shopping at the mall…
December 28th, 2007 at 4:26 pm
The average American couldn’t tell you the three branches of their own government.
December 28th, 2007 at 5:21 pm
My, my aren’t we all so intellectually superior?
December 30th, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Bhutto as Archduke Ferdinand -> China vs India? (Shudder); but The Great War was considered at least as unlikley by pundits at the time…