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FBI’s active shooter data

John Lott:

Unfortunately, the problems with the reports have continued during the Trump administration. The latest FBI report, released in May, misses still more cases. The FBI claims that from 2014 to 2017 there were 90 active shooter cases and only seven where permit holders stopped these attacks.

In all, the FBI claims that concealed handgun permit holders have stopped 3.2 percent of active shooter incidents.

But the bureau misses at least 23 cases where permit holders saved the day. That means they stopped 11.5 percent of active shooter incidents from 2000 to 2017. We at the Crime Prevention Research Center are more confident that we have all of the cases from 2014 to 2017, when 16.5 percent of attacks were stopped.

7 Responses to “FBI’s active shooter data”

  1. Lyle Says:

    And let’s not forget to consider the possible number of attacks that never happened at all because of the deterrent effect of an armed populace. Deterrence is a real thing, and while it cannot be quantified directly, it cannot be altogether ignored either.

  2. Lyle Says:

    And don’t expect the FBI to be honest about these things. They’ve already proven themselves to be motivated more by politics than by a love for truth.

    At this point it’s up to them to make that long recovery, reorganization and reformation necessary to gain anyone’s trust. If that were ever to happen it would take many years, and yet that remembrance of breach-of-trust would linger still.

  3. JTC Says:

    Lyle took the words out of my mouth; carrying the means of deadly defense is far more a tool of deterrence than of shootouts.

    Hard to chart the psychology of a thing, but yes indeed it *is* a thing.

  4. Ron W Says:

    I suppose the successful intervention of gun permit holders to thwart crime or save lives doesn’t apply to the “if it saves on life, it’s worth it” mantra.

  5. JTC Says:

    And it occurs to me that the deterrence is on both sides. Anyone with the right mindset to carry has a heightened awareness that absolutely deters him from minor arguments and altercations due to the potential for life ending or altering escalation.

    To be sure there are many who carry legally but for the wrong reasons, their weapon emboldening them for what they are sure they are prepared for, and almost invite the opportunity to prove it. But they’ll be proven wrong if they engage in a shots fired situation, regardless of the outcome.

    But they are the distinct minority, and I think the ubiquity of concealed carry among law-abiding citizens actually is a major deterrent for potential bad guys, but almost certainly also decreases the number of stupid gratuitous meaningless conflicts which so often lead to somebody getting dead.

    Sort of counter-intuitive to some but totally reasonable for a person capable of logic and reason.

  6. Richard Popkin Says:

    (7/90)x100=7.778:
    Almost 8 percent!!!

  7. BenC Says:

    Why argue about numbers. If you apply their standards if it even prevented or stopped just one then we would be evil not to carry.