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By the numbers

Joe crunches the numbers on the 2,707 yard shot in Afghanistan:

On the average you would have to shoot 83 three-shot groups to get one which was less than or equal to 1 MOA (about 30 inches).

10 Responses to “By the numbers”

  1. Wolfwood Says:

    I wonder what life is like in the part of the multiverse where the guy didn’t make all three shots.

    Then again, I seem to be growing a beard, so maybe I have my answer.

  2. Mu Says:

    He’s overly optimistic in his assumptions, he’s not using the 250 gr at 3070 ft/s the British are using. That bullet goes subsonic at 2000 m.

  3. Paul Says:

    3 shots in the same area in under a minute. Odds on the guy could do it again given similar circumstances. Not with standing Joe’s numbers or his standing as long distance shooter.

  4. Joe Huffman Says:

    I didn’t know which bullet and the MV which was used by the British. Give me the BC of the bullet and I’ll rerun the numbers.

  5. SteveA Says:

    Hmm, 30% chance to hit per shot.
    What are the odds of making 3 such shots in a row?
    Not calling BS, however, it seems a bit . . . . exaggerated.
    Sorta like the 4 ptr that by the end of the season is a 14 ptr.

  6. SteveA Says:

    Bullet weight: 250 grains
    Bullet diameter: .338
    BC: .587
    Muzzle velocity: 2950 FPS

    If i’m calculating right, that equates to ~ -5794″s @ 2700 yds. Thats gonna be one hell of a hold over.

  7. Timmeehh Says:

    Or maybe the snipers know something you don’t.

  8. Mikee Says:

    I once got 9 yellow M&Ms, one after another, out of a vending machine packet of M&Ms. I poured out the bag’s remaining candies after #9 and saw several of each color. I just got the especially yellow-full bag by chance, and the first 9 candies were also yellow by pure chance, despite the presence of all the other M&M colors in the same bag.

    That this was at 3am while studying statistics for a college final did not sit well with me. But it happened.

  9. Johnny I Says:

    If I see again, I’ll link it–bullet drop at that distance was almost 400 ft.


  10. Joe Huffman Says:

    Take two. Not much is different. The time of flight increased some and the target velocity decreased some.

    I did notice an error in reporting the number of groups you would have to shoot to get a 1 MOA group at the range. It should have been 4.9 instead of 83. I don’t know if that was a data input error on my part or a subtle bug in the program.

    Sorry about that.