6 to 1
Posted by: SayUncleThose are roughly the odds laid by prediction markets and online betting establishments that Barack Squarepants Obama will win the Democratic nomination. Story here. What that means, for you non-gambling types, is that for my beer bet that Barack Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Obama will not win the nomination to be even money, you’d have to lay 6 six beers to my one. So, you folks who took my beer bet at one to one have made a bet that has what we gamblers call a positive expectation.
April 9th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Wait, I thought you bet that he WOULD win the nomination, and I bet that he would not. That means I’m the one betting against the odds, and that you’d be laying six beers to my one beer.
*Quick Google*
Ayup, I’ve bet against the odds, so I’m the one who should benefit from a 6-to-1 payout if I win (which I hope not to).
By the way, can we stop calling it a Google and just call a “quick search to find some trivial piece of information concerning an unimportant-in-the-grand-scheme-of-things argument” by the name “to tgirsch?” I’m normally not that megalomaniacal, but you seem to have taken to attributing that behavior disproportionately to me…
April 9th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
You mean Barack “Who’s Sayin?” Obama?
April 9th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Yeah. but i also bet the other way once. And I couldn’t remember who took me up on it (you or sean - I think it’s sean, now).
April 10th, 2008 at 12:27 am
Wait, you bet both ways? So either way you break even? Where’s the balls in that?
Although, I suppose it could just be a clever ploy to have an excuse to go out drinking beer with fellow bloggers…
April 10th, 2008 at 8:33 am
I changed my mind. So, I have one bet with you and one with sean on the primary. And the same bet with you both on the general.